WORLD CUP 2026 · DAILY EDGE

Where the model beats your book.

Type the odds your book offers into any market. Gold means the model rates it higher than the price implies.

ℹ How to use this — value bets, stakes & Kelly explained+

1. Type the odds your bookmaker offers in the box next to any market. Each market already shows the model's own estimate, e.g. model 60%.

2. Look for gold. VALUE means the model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a positive-value bet. PASS means the price isn't worth it.

What is a value bet? Odds of 2.50 imply a 40% chance (1 ÷ 2.50). If the model says 50%, the book is paying you as if it's less likely than it really is — that gap is your edge.

Stake next to a VALUE bet is how much to put on, worked out from your Bankroll and Kelly fraction.

Kelly fraction sets how aggressively you stake. Full Kelly grows a bankroll fastest but swings hard; 0.25 (quarter-Kelly) is the safe default — slide lower to be more cautious.

Bet responsibly: these are estimates, not certainties. Stick to single bets (don't combine them), and only stake what you can afford to lose.

Bankroll = your total betting pot. Kelly fraction = how aggressively to stake (0.25 = cautious quarter-Kelly).